Economy - Reports
Professional forecasters tilt their GDP forecasts downwards for FY25 As on : 09-Dec-24  12:45

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced the result of 91st round of survey of professional forecasters (SPF). Forty-four panellists participated in this round of the bi-monthly survey conducted during November 2024. The results presented in this section are based on the forecasts submitted before the release of the estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for Q2:2024-25 by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on November 29, 2024, after which a quick follow-up survey was conducted among the SPF panellists and they were advised to provide their updated forecasts for annual GDP growth and headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation by December 02, 2024.

As per the regular survey, real GDP was expected to grow by 6.8 per cent in 2024-25, revised down by 10 basis points (bps) from the previous round. It was expected to grow by 6.6 per cent in 2025-26. SPF panellists placed GDP growth forecasts in the range of 6.1-7.7 per cent for 2024-25 and in the range of 6.0-7.2 per cent for 2025-26.

Forecasters had assigned highest probability to real GDP growth in the range of 6.5-6.9 per cent for both 2024-25 and 2025-26. As per the regular survey, annual headline inflation, based on CPI-Combined, was expected at 4.8 per cent during 2024-25 and at 4.3 per cent during 2025-26. Headline CPI inflation (y-o-y) was expected at 5.5 per cent in Q3:2024-25; it was projected to decrease over the subsequent three quarters to remain between 4.2-4.6 per cent.

Merchandise exports and imports were projected to grow by 2.4 per cent and 4.6 per cent, respectively, during 2024-25 and by 5.5 per cent and 6.0 per cent, respectively, during 2025-26, in US dollar terms. Current account deficit (CAD) was expected at 1.0 per cent (of GDP at current market prices) for both 2024-25 and 2025-26.

Twenty-nine panellists responded to the quick follow-up survey conducted after the release of the GDP estimates for Q2:2024-25. The median of GDP growth projections of the forecasters who responded to the follow-up survey has been lower by 40 bps and 10 bps for 2024-25 and 2025-26, respectively, relative to their responses in the regular survey round. The median forecast of the annual CPI headline inflation for 2024-25 remained unchanged from the regular survey round but was revised down by 10 bps for 2025-26.

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